The European gas price (TTF) has fallen to around EUR 33/MWh following the temporary turmoil in the Middle East - a drop of approximately 20% from the late-June peak. This once again demonstrates how sensitive the market is to geopolitical developments outside Europe. Temporary disruptions in Norwegian gas exports also briefly pushed prices above EUR 35/MWh. The combination of geopolitical risks, weather influences, and supply fluctuations makes the gas market volatile, especially now that physical supply remains relatively tight. Meanwhile, the European storage season is progressing steadily. EU gas storage levels are currently around 65%, meaning the injection pace must remain strong to reach the minimum target of 80% before 1 November.
Geopolitical sentiment continues to dominate the oil market. Although the Brent price temporarily rose by 15%, it quickly returned to around USD 68/barrel following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Structurally, the market remains oversupplied, partly due to increased production from OPEC+. The recent decline in U.S. oil inventories has provided some price support, but much will depend on the outcome of the trade conflict between the U.S. and the EU. A potential agreement could boost sentiment temporarily, but may not resolve the underlying market weakness.
