Hans van Cleef van EqoLibrium sprak met Elise Wu van Montel over de Europese gasvoorraden.
(Montel) Europe is likely to struggle to meet Europe’s revised gas storage target of 80% by the start of winter, with analysts expecting inventories to reach only around 70% amid weak incentives to inject gas.
Jacob Mandel, research lead at Aurora Energy Research, expected EU-wide reserves to be refilled to around 68-73% by the start of winter, adding even 75% would be “ambitious”. Injections into inventories were likely to remain slow because current futures gas prices provide little incentive to store gas for later resale, he said.
TTF prices for September and October were last seen trading at EUR 65.96/MWh and EUR 66.10/MWh, respectively, while the winter contract was slightly lower, at EUR 64.50/MWh.
Hans van Cleef, managing director at research firm EqoLibrium, said the EU would be “very lucky” if it managed to replenish stocks to 75%, with a 70-72% level now appearing more likely.
The European Commission yesterday lowered its gas storage target from 90% to 80% by the start of winter.
“An 80% target would be easier to reach. However, it doesn’t change anything about the uncertainty around whether it will be enough or not and if we need to import more [LNG] and thus outbid others,” van Cleef said.
Mandel said 80% “is still possible, but it will be extremely difficult to hit that target, and there is a risk that the added injection demand from trying to hit an 80% target could inflate prices beyond where they would be otherwise”.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said Europe faced a “potentially challenging winter” with the possibility of lagging inventories leading to high prices for consumers. EU gas reserves were last seen 62% full, a record low for this time of year, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed.
Price risks
Van Cleef did not expect serious physical gas shortages even if storage levels fell short of targets, but warned Europe would be exposed to upside price risks, particularly in the event of a severely cold winter in Europe or in Asia or supply disruptions.
Mandel expected “a lot of volatility” in gas prices, with Europe’s benchmark contract, the front-month TTF, likely to continue trading above EUR 60/MWh throughout winter in order to attract LNG cargoes. “I wouldn’t be shocked if gas prices hit the EUR 100/MWh mark for a couple of days in an extreme scenario, although not for an extended period,” he said. Most of the risk was in January and February, which were typically the coldest months, he said.
Mandel also saw a “very high likelihood” that EU inventories could end the winter at a record low of around 25%.
However, Axel Scheuer, director of Energy & Climate Advisory Europe, said Europe no longer needed to store as much gas as in previous years because of lower reliance on pipeline supplies and expanded LNG regasification capacity.
He nevertheless agreed that low storage levels would expose Europe “to short-term gas pricing” during the coming winter.
Dit artikel is gepubliceerd door Montel op 21 augustus 2026.