Hans van Cleef of EqoLibrium spoke with Elise Wu of Montel about European gas reserves.
(Montel) Europe is likely to struggle to meet Europe’s revised gas storage target of 80% by the start of winter, with analysts expecting inventories to reach only about 70% due to weak incentives to inject gas.
Jacob Mandel, research lead at Aurora Energy Research, expected EU-wide reserves to be replenished to about 68–73% by the start of winter, adding that even 75% would be “ambitious.” He said that injections into storage facilities were likely to remain slow because current futures gas prices offer little incentive to store gas for later resale.
TTF prices for September and October were last trading at EUR 65.96/MWh and EUR 66.10/MWh, respectively, while the winter contract was slightly lower, at EUR 64.50/MWh.
Hans van Cleef, managing director at the research firm EqoLibrium, said the EU would be “very lucky” if it managed to replenish stocks to 75 percent, with a level of 70–72 percent now appearing more likely.
The European Commission yesterday lowered its natural gas storage target from 90% to 80% by the start of winter.
“An 80% target would be easier to achieve. However, it doesn’t change anything regarding the uncertainty about whether it will be enough or not and whether we’ll need to import more [LNG] and thus outbid others,” van Cleef said.
Mandel said that 80% “is still possible, but it will be extremely difficult to reach that target, and there is a risk that the additional demand for injections resulting from trying to reach an 80% target could drive prices higher than they would otherwise be.”
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said Europe was facing a “potentially challenging winter,” with the possibility that low inventory levels could lead to high prices for consumers. EU gas reserves were last reported to be 62% full, a record low for this time of year, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.
Price risks
Van Cleef did not expect serious physical gas shortages even if storage levels fell short of targets, but warned that Europe would be exposed to upside price risks, particularly in the event of a severely cold winter in Europe or Asia, or supply disruptions.
Mandel expected “a lot of volatility” in gas prices, with Europe’s benchmark contract, the front-month TTF, likely to continue trading above 60 EUR/MWh throughout the winter in order to attract LNG cargoes. “I wouldn’t be surprised if gas prices hit the 100 EUR/MWh mark for a couple of days in an extreme scenario, although not for an extended period,” he said. Most of the risk lay in January and February, which were typically the coldest months, he said.
Mandel also saw a “very high likelihood” that EU inventories could end the winter at a record low of around 25%.
However, Axel Scheuer, director of Energy & Climate Advisory Europe, said Europe no longer needed to store as much gas as in previous years due to its reduced reliance on pipeline supplies and expanded LNG regasification capacity.
He nevertheless agreed that low storage levels would expose Europe “to short-term gas pricing” during the coming winter.
This article was published by Montel on August 21, 2026.