Although the round trip Route du Soleil has just been made by most of the Dutch, I would like to take you into a crystal ball to next summer. It is early July 2026 when the famous balcony scene heralds the start of a new cabinet. In line with the average duration of the previous three formations, this one too will have lasted about 250 days. Palace Noordeinde fills up with patriotic press delegates on this sun-drenched day. A joyful moment, because our country has a national government again after more than a year of uncertainty.
At the same time, the rock-hard political reality of administrative challenges will make the joy short-lived. The brand-new government will have to do what it can to complete the national budget in time for Budget Day. That won't be easy, however, given the dark cloud that will begin to hang over the people's wallets starting in 2027. Anyway, so much for my crystal ball.
Governing after the sunshine
Glass balls are best left to politicians. After all, they pretend: "To govern is to foresee. This obviously means that good governance takes future developments into account. But does that happen enough? And if they do take the future into account, are they transparent about it? In my view, that very transparency is crucial to maintaining a bond of trust between the people and politicians. If you fall short, trust in politics declines and the playing field is open to populist ideas.
Therefore I would like to extend the popular political phrase as follows: "governing is looking ahead and being transparent about it. In about a month and a half we will again put a red cross in the voting booth. Simple on paper, but in stark contrast to the complexity of the issues. Be it immigration or energy transition. Contrary to what populists would have you believe, reality is one of multiplicity and nuance.
Looking ahead is not enough
I advocate exposing that very complexity! And election time is the right time for that. The people deserve better than unsubtle populist black-and-white thinking. By precisely informing the people about the scope and complexity of national administrative challenges, you invest in a political-social bond of trust. That bond of trust is crucial for an adequate national government that can also tolerate politically difficult but necessary choices.
Such an administrative challenge is a system that will not go into effect until 2027. That may seem like a distant prospect today. Yet this system is one of the first issues a new administration will have to account for. It is about ETS2: a second emissions trading system in addition to the one we already have since 2005 for the power sector and industry. This EU-wide system aims to reduce CO2 emissions, particularly in road transport and the built environment.
The cost of ETS2
Economically, it is a smart system. This is because it does not matter where the CO2 reduction takes place in the EU. This allows the cheapest CO2 reduction to take place first.
It works as follows: The new emissions trading system requires energy suppliers to hedge their customers' CO2 emissions by buying and redeeming emission allowances. There is a limited number of allowances available that decrease each year. These allowances are tradable, creating a price for them. The costs incurred by energy suppliers - both for heat and fuels - will be passed on to the end user. In other words, citizens' energy bills and costs at the pump increase.
A letter from (now outgoing) Climate and Green Growth Minister Hermans (dated Nov. 4, 2024) shows that this system could lead to a cost surcharge of some 11-13 euro cents per liter of gasoline or diesel and 10 euro cents per cubic meter of natural gas. For average households, this adds up to several hundred euros more in costs starting in 2027. In other words, the first impression a new administration will leave is one of bills running into hundreds of euros. The coming into force of this emissions trading scheme is virtually irreversible. Yet the message remains largely understated.
Don't cover it up, but explain it away
The additional message of a rising energy bill may then be uncomfortable. Yet there are precisely political measures that can be taken to reduce the impact, or land the cost where it can be borne. The ETS2 was created to provide a financial incentive for people to move from using fossil fuels to a carbon-neutral footprint.
If that incentive is combined with smart complementary measures at the national level, the pain need not be felt by everyone. A smart approach can actually spare people and help them switch to a clean and affordable energy bill. Thus, the message - as long as it is timely and well explained - need not be a problem for voters.
It is therefore important that voters are included in this story. If you, as a politician, want to do something about trust in politics, the upcoming elections to the House of Representatives are the perfect opportunity to make this subject discussable.
To govern is to look ahead. But then be transparent! If you don't, the risk is that you win the elections at the end of October, but that you lose the trust among your cabinet before you have even started. In doing so, you make the soil fertile once again for the rampant growth of populist roots.
So don't start hiding away, start explaining!
This column was written in a personal capacity by Bart van der Pas.
