Oil price stable despite sanctions. The Brent price is moving around USD 64.50/barrel. The temporary price increase following US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil did not continue; the market reacts mainly to structural supply and demand relationships.
OPEC+ weighs market share against price stability. OPEC+ continues to reduce production cuts by 137 kv/d from December, but pauses in Q1 2026. This reflects the tension between seeking price stability and maintaining market share.
Sanctions have mostly temporary effect. U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies caused short-term market disruption. The impact is expected to remain limited as Russia will divert export flows and conduct transactions outside the dollar.
Gas market dependent on course of winter. European gas stocks are below the level of previous years, partly due to the flattening gas price and the narrow price spreads between summer and winter. A cold winter could lead to rapid stock depletion and a large filling task for 2026.
