The truce between Israel and Hamas and tensions in the U.S.-China trade conflict are putting pressure on oil prices. The structure of the forward curve for Brent oil suggests that the market expects oversupply in late 2025 and 2026. China's strategic and commercial oil stock target plays an important role here, as does the production policy of OPEC+, where the most recent meeting opted for only a limited reduction in production cuts. In addition, the recent rise in tanker rates can be seen as a possible indication of short-term oversupply, although additional OPEC+ production will also influence this development.
An increasing share of unconventional oil and gas extraction (such as shale) in the global production mix is leading to faster resource depletion. Although the bulk of shale extraction is still taking place in the US, production in Argentina and China has also increased sharply. In the TTF gas market, relative calm was briefly disrupted by delayed LNG deliveries from Qatar and attacks on Ukraine's gas infrastructure. In the coming months, weather forecasts in Europe and Asia will play an increasing role in gas market pricing.
