The monthly Dutch electricity price contract (baseload, October delivery) shows an upward trend, in line with the seasonal effect. The contract currently quotes a price of EUR 85/MWh. Fewer sunshine hours mean that production with higher marginal costs becomes necessary. This leads to higher prices, despite the fact that wind power traditionally gets a higher share in autumn and winter. This is because the production capacity of solar power is greater than the capacity of wind power, so the decline of solar weighs more heavily in pricing. The coal price (API2, active monthly contract) has fallen in recent months. Still, its price depressing effect is limited, partly because of its relatively small share in the electricity mix.
The national carbon tax has been weakened, but not completely abolished. Depending on the price development of the EU ETS, there may still be a levy cost in 2026 (and beyond). The ETS price currently quotes around EUR 76/ton. The price rise in recent weeks was partly driven by the role of speculative positions toward the compliance deadline in late September. Weather conditions and gas prices remain important fundamental price drivers in the coming months. At the same time, there is macroeconomic uncertainty, fueled in part by U.S. President Trump's trade policies.
The Climate and Energy Outlook (KEV) shows that the Netherlands will become more dependent on electricity imports towards 2030. The introduction of quarterly prices from September 30 (for delivery on October 1) should lead to more efficient pricing in the day-ahead market.
