EU ETS: The ETS price has risen to well above EUR 80/tonne, mainly due to speculative long positions following the 2040 climate target. The high number of long positions also brings the risk of sudden profit-taking, which is associated with downward price pressure.
Electricity/Natural Gas: Despite the first cold snap of the year, the TTF price dropped below EUR 30/MWh. Mainly due to increased LNG supply, mild weather forecasts and peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Furthermore, due to a mild start to November, net gas from stocks was used late. However, due to the high number of short positions, the market remains susceptible to short-covering.
Further in this update: The COP30 did not produce binding agreements on fossil fuel phase-out, but instead set in motion a voluntary international trajectory. The World Energy Outlook 2025 stated that global growth in electricity generation from solar and batteries is accelerating, while in the Netherlands this applies only to battery power.
