The active annual and monthly contract (baseload) on the Dutch electricity market was characterized by a sideways price trend in July. Recently, the monthly contract in particular has found its way up, following the gas price. On the international front, the trade agreement with the U.S. and the heat wave in Asia in particular play an important role here. The latter has turned the TTF-JKM further in favor of the Asian benchmark.
It also appears that wind power production in the first half of 2025 was at a particularly low level. The main reason for this is the high solar production. This led to a large number of hours with negative power prices in these months, causing wind turbines to be regularly turned off (curtailment). It is likely that the growth of the number of hours with negative electricity prices in the Netherlands is decreasing. This has its origin in the abolition of the balancing scheme as of January 1, 2027, and may possibly be reinforced by more expensive solar panels from China.
Coal prices have recovered since early 2025, after an extended period of downward trend. In the world's largest coal consumer China, demand is still disappointing. However, this is being offset by demand growth elsewhere, particularly in the US. An increase in electricity demand is largely behind this, as outlined in an analysis of the IEA's Electricity Mid-Year Update.
