Oil & Gas – Abundant or scarce, energy markets brace themselves
Strait of Hormuz: Due to the threat of Iranian attacks, the strait between Iran and major energy-exporting countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia has become virtually unnavigable. As a result, roughly 20% of the global oil and LNG supply cannot reach the market via the usual route.
Brent oil: As a result of the 'blockade' of the Strait of Hormuz, the price of the active monthly contract for Brent oil rose by around 10% this week. The supply shock is taking place in a fundamentally relatively ample oil market, with OPEC+ announcing last weekend that it would implement a production increase of 206 kv/d from April.
TTF: The European (and global) gas markets are actually facing relative shortages. In addition, LNG production at the Ras Laffan industrial complex in Qatar came to a standstill on Monday. These developments led to the price of the active monthly contract almost doubling.
Gas stocks: European gas stocks are at low levels. With TTF prices currently high, stock levels could come under additional pressure despite the relatively mild weather in large parts of Europe. After all, it is now more attractive financially to use natural gas from reserves than to purchase it on the spot market. Concerns are also growing about filling reserves in the coming months.
