Energeia's "The Vote" quotes EqoLibrium's analysts on the allowances:
"The price for CO₂ emission allowances seems to settle comfortably above €80 per ton, but market experts at EqoLibrium warn of the possibility of a rapid price drop due to profit taking. The further the price rises, the greater the risk of such a scenario. "There only needs to be a single reason for speculators to reduce their positions, and then things can move quickly," say the research firm's experts.
Price increases in the CO₂ allowance market may be based on emissions associated with electricity generation. Emission rates in this sector were higher than anticipated in the first half of 2025 (mainly due to lack of wind, which was met by coal and gas), and if the same holds true for the second half of this year, then demand for allowances will remain higher than previously expected in the near future, EqoLibrium said in a biweekly market report.
For the coming month (as for previous months), clean spark spreads (a measure of gas plants' profitability based on monthly contract prices) are positive, EqoLibrium says, meaning there is a sufficient business case to run. Coal plants, on the other hand, do not currently have a positive clean dark spread. "At most in the day-ahead market or in the imbalance markets, coal plants can play a role."
In other words, it is still unclear how many emission allowances the coal-fired power plants will need next month. "In case of unexpectedly higher than normal use of these power plants, the price of EU ETS allowances may rise a little further."
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