July 8, 2025

Electricity - Setting sun, rising prices

The Dutch electricity price (baseload, monthly contract) followed the volatility of the TTF market due to the rocket fire between Israel and Iran. Even greater volatility occurred in the day-ahead market, partly due to the heat wave in northwestern Europe. Supply of electricity on July 2 at 9 p.m. traded for over EUR 517/MWh, while the afternoon hours of that day saw prices of EUR 50/MWh.

The EU ETS price has been moving within a range of about EUR 70/ton to EUR 75/ton for two months. Wednesday's July 9 deadline for negotiations on an EU-U.S. trade deal may provide macroeconomic direction for the ETS market, with European industry under pressure. In recent weeks, Dutch industry has seen the House of Representatives pass a motion calling for the abolition of the national carbon tax. However, the implementation of that motion remains uncertain.